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09/06/2010 -
Michigan-Notre Dame seems so last century now.
The game burnished reputations, showcased a handful of top NFL draft picks and often signaled whether either Midwestern power was likely to land a spot in the national championship picture. But the meeting of the sport's two winningest programs in South Bend this weekend will resemble something closer to ``Extreme Makeover: College Football Edition.''
Neither has been relevant the last few years and both are in the midst of rebuilding. On the admittedly slim evidence of Saturday's openers, each suggested a change of fortune may be in the offing.
``We've been through a lot. It's been tough on the coaches. It's been tough on the players,'' Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez said after the Wolverines pounded visiting Connecticut.
``This is just one win,'' he added, ``but I'm going to let our players enjoy it.''
``I took on the challenge at Notre Dame because I want to see this program back to where I believe it should be,'' said coach Brian Kelly after a convincing win over Purdue in his first game in charge of the Irish, ``and that's amongst the elite in college football.''
While their problems have been similar, the programs have gone about rebuilding differently.
The Irish have been impatient. Kelly is their sixth coach since the start of the decade - counting George O'Leary, who never coached a game, and Kent Baer, who served in an interim role for a bowl game after Ty Willingham was fired - and the lack of continuity has shown on defense.
Like his predecessor, Charlie Weis, Kelly brought glittering offensive credentials and a reputation for developing quarterbacks to South Bend.
But against Purdue, the rigorous offseason conditioning program Kelly installed yielded immediate dividends on defense - four sacks and two interceptions by a team that was losing the turnover battle regularly. And Notre Dame's ground game was just as tough, piling up 153 yards with Armando Allen and Cierre Wood taking turns slicing and dicing the Boilermakers' defense.
Purdue coach Danny Hope called Allen ``the biggest difference-maker in the game. He's going to make a lot of other people miss, too.''
Connecticut coach Randy Edsall said something similar about Michigan's quarterback, the breakout star of the opening weekend.
``Denard Robinson is going to make people look bad,'' he said.
Robinson's debut couldn't have come a moment too soon for Rodriguez. Michigan has always taken the long-term view, and Rodriguez' predecessor, Lloyd Carr, held the job for the 13 seasons before that. Rodriguez was brought in to update the offense, but the results were so poor in his first two seasons that more than a few high-profile programs wouldn't have kept him around for a third.
Throw in run-ins with the NCAA over practice time - a first for the Wolverines' football program - and Rodriguez' continued employment prospects were dimming. But his Michigan higher-ups weren't the only one counseling patience. Rodriguez told anyone willing to listen that the spread offense that worked so well at every one of his last stops would succeed in Ann Arbor once he had the personnel in place. And Robinson turned out to be just the guy.
He ran 29 times for 197 yards and threw for another 186 yards, completing 19 of 22 passes. That's a lot of touches without even one turnover, something that killed Michigan down the stretch last season.
Speaking of which, the Wolverines began last season with plenty of promise, slipping past Notre Dame en route to a 4-0 start, only to lose seven of their final eight games, including five in a row. The same game proved an accurate barometer of where the Irish were headed. They stumbled to a 6-6 finish.
That explained Rodriguez' refusal to make too much of what might have been his biggest achievement so far in charge of the maize and blue. In his mind, preparations for Notre Dame couldn't begin soon enough.
``I will enjoy this for the next three hours and 10 minutes,'' he said, ``and try to get five hours of sleep.''
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Jim Litke is a national sports columnist for the Associated Press. Write to him at jlitke(at)ap.orgCopyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on college football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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