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11/16/2011 - Homestead, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Sunday, November 20. Race: Ford 400. Site: Homestead-Miami Speedway. Track: 1.5-mile oval. Start time: 3:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 267. Miles: 400.5. 2010 Winner: Carl Edwards. Television: ESPN. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN)/SIRIUS NASCAR Satellite.
Three-two-one.
No, we're not doing the countdown for a rocket launch.
It's the point separation between Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart heading into the Sprint Cup Series season-finale on Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Edwards currently holds a three-point lead over Stewart. They are the only drivers who remain in championship contention.
With a newer and simpler scoring format this year, Edwards' present lead over Stewart roughly translates to 13 points under the previous points system. That makes it the slimmest margin between the top-two drivers going into the final race in the Chase for the Sprint Cup since NASCAR began its playoff format for its premier series in 2004. It's also the third-closest separation since the inception of the position-based points structure in 1975.
Last year, Denny Hamlin held a 15-point lead over Jimmie Johnson when the series arrived at Homestead, which was the closest margin in the Chase finale. Johnson's second-place finish compared to a 14th-place run for Hamlin allowed Johnson to clinch his record-extending fifth straight Sprint Cup championship by a 39-point margin.
Edwards and Stewart have been duking it out in the last two races.
Earlier this month, Stewart won at Texas and moved to within three points of Edwards, who finished second there. The points margin between the two remained the same after Edwards placed second and Stewart third at Phoenix.
"It's fun when we're first and second in the points. and we're running first and second on the racetrack the last two weeks," Stewart said. "It shows why we're both in this position.
"We just got to keep doing what we're doing. We got to keep the pressure on. Two weeks in a row we've led the most laps, and I'm really proud of that. Proud of the pressure we're putting on him. A lot can happen in 400 miles [at Homestead]."
Edwards has finished no worse than 11th in the Chase so far this year. He took over the points lead after Kansas -- the fourth race in the playoffs -- and has remained atop the standings since then.
After winning the first two Chase races -- Chicagoland and New Hampshire -- Stewart lost his momentum by finishing 25th at Dover and then 15th at Kansas. He had dropped to seventh in the point standings. But Stewart has steadily bounced back since then, scoring five straight top-10 finishes, including victories at Martinsville and Texas.
"It's neat to me that Tony and the guys on the 14 are running so well, won so many races and performing on a high level," Edwards said. "It's going to mean more if we're able to beat them in this championship because of that, to beat Tony and those guys at their peak.
"I can truthfully say this is the best Chase we've ever had. We haven't gone out and got the trophies that we have in other Chases, but we've performed better than we ever have. If they're beating us, they're beating us at our best, and I think that's pretty neat."
If Edwards wins at Homestead, he will be guaranteed of his first Sprint Cup championship. Edwards has two victories at this track -- 2008 and 2010. He also has an average finish of 5.7 in seven races here.
"Homestead is going to be a lot of fun," he said. "I really enjoy racing there. The cool thing about Homestead, you're going to be able to move around, pass and not get hung up as badly in traffic as you can at other racetracks. For the sport in general, I don't think there's a better place to go than Homestead to fight for this championship."
Stewart won the first two Cup races at Homestead from 1999-2000, when the racetrack had a flat, rectangular configuration based on Indianapolis Motor Speedway's layout. Homestead, a 1.5-mile track, was reconfigured in 2003, with banking in the turns increased variably to 18-20 degrees.
Stewart's average finish at Homestead is 12.4. He is one of four active drivers in the series that has competed in all 12 races here.
"I like Homestead," he said. "It's a place that we had a lot of success when it was flat. We haven't got that win with it banked. I like the way that track races right now."
Stewart is attempting to win his third series championship. He won it in 2002 and '05. If Stewart clinches the title this weekend, he would join David Pearson, Lee Petty, Darrell Waltrip and Cale Yarborough as the drivers with three championships. He would also become just the second driver and owner titleholder. Alan Kulwicki accomplished the feat first in 1992.
"It's just about getting four more points than he does; that's all that matters," Stewart said.
Stewart does have one advantage over Edwards in the title fight right now. If the two were to end up in a points tie after Homestead, Stewart would be awarded the championship based on his four wins this season -- all of them coming in the Chase. Edwards has only one win for the season, which came in March at Las Vegas, a track similar to Homestead.
Three-two-one. Who wants it the most?
"There would be nothing better than coming down the last lap side-by-side racing for the win; that would be really fun," Edwards said.
Forty-eight teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Ford 400.
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In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.
Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).
If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and online sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).
Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.
New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)
In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:
There was also the possibility that the final score could land exactly on the spread number (for example, the Pats winning 28-21 when -7), which is called a “push” or “no action” and a refund is then issued to bettors of both teams.
The same game with the same point spread can be considered from the weaker team’s perspective: The Underdog (Philly in the case of our example) is not expected to win the game and online football betting thus receives or “gets” points given by the stronger team. When a game is stated from the underdog’s perspective the team is listed with a plus sign and the number of points they are underdogs by:
Philadelphia Eagles +7 vs. New England Patriots
Keep in mind that Philadelphia +7 and New England -7 is the same point spread on the same game, simply stated differently. The first is from the underdog’s perspective; the later is from the favorite’s.
Not a must, but for some a mathematical approach is insightful. You can determine the ATS winner by either:
Let’s look at the actual result of Super Bowl XXXIX: New England 24 Philadelphia 21
The favorite, New England, won the game but not by more than the point spread they were favored by (7), so the ATS result was a LOSS for Pats bettors.
Looking at it from the underdog’s perspective, Philly did not win the game, but they lost by less than the point spread (7), so the ATS result was a WIN for Eagle bettors.
Mathematically considered, 24 for the favorite Pats minus 7 equals 17, which is less than the 20 the Eagles scored, so the underdog Eagles win the ATS result (or you could figure 20 plus 7 equals 27 for the Eagles, which is more than 24 for the Pats).
Emily’s boyfriend understood the point spread and wagered $100 on the Eagles at +7. The Eagles may not have gotten a Super Bowl ring, but since they won the ATS result Emily’s boyfriend cashed his bet – giving him money to take her out to a nice dinner.
And now hopefully you understand how to read point spreads, putting you one step closer to joining the fun of sports betting.
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